The devil is in the detail
A Comparison of Havering and Redbridge Secondary Schools, 2025
It is reasonable to compare Havering and Redbridge as they are outer-London boroughs with the same number of secondary schools. They are politically linked being a single GLA constituency.
The government highlights the achievement of GCSE Grades 5-9 in English and Mathematics. These subjects are the gateway to post-16 opportunities and are the Gold Standard. It is imperative students achieve these grades.
The majority of Redbridge and Havering’s schools exceed the national average (see Appendix tables One and Two below). Redbridge has 14 schools achieving the Gold Standard whilst Havering has 11. On balance, Redbridge’s schools are qualitatively superior to Havering’s. Redbridge has two selective schools which hoover up the most talented 11+ students. Redbridge has six out of the top ten positions for achievement, whilst Havering has all five of the worst achieving schools. These positions have been stable for a number of years, which is worrying for Havering’s students.1
Note
1 Havering and Redbridge’s Secondary Schools: A Comparison, 2024 – Politics in Havering
APPENDIX: 2025 GCSE Grades 5-9 English and Mathematics
Table One: Above the National Average (Redbridge in italics)
| Woodford County | 98.9% |
| Ilford County | 97.2% |
| Valentines | 75.3% |
| Coopers Coburn | 70.8% |
| Seven Kings | 70.5% |
| Sacred Heart of Mary | 70% |
| Trinity Catholic | 64.7% |
| Ark Isaac Newton | 64.6% |
| Royal Liberty | 64.6% |
| Campions | 62.3% |
| Ursuline Catholic | 61.5% |
| Hornchurch High | 61.4% |
| Wanstead | 61.1% |
| Loxford | 59.9% |
| Beal | 59.4% |
| Gaynes | 58.8% |
| Woodbridge | 58.3% |
| Oaks Park | 57.2% |
| Chadwell Heath | 53.9% |
| Hall Mead | 51% |
| Harris Academy Rainham | 50.3% |
| Redden Court | 48.6% |
| St Edwards | 48.6% |
| Palmers | 46.9% |
| Frances Bardsley | 45.7% |
| National Average | 45.2% |
Table Two: Below the National Average
| National Average | 45.2% |
| Abbs Cross | 45.1% |
| Emerson Park | 43.5% |
| Caterham | 43.3% |
| King Solomon | 41.7% |
| Forest | 37.1% |
| Mayfield | 36.6% |
| Drapers | 34.6% |
| Marshalls Park | 32.7% |
| Bower Park | 31.4% |
| Sanders Draper | 30.7% |
| Brittons | 27.1% |
Havering’s Secondary Academies and their Disadvantaged Students, 2025
The government publishes an annual set of education statistics with GCSE grades 5-91 highlighted. These ‘Gold Standard’ results are the foundation for post-16 education. The Attainment Gap is the underachievement of disadvantaged students in relation to the non-disadvantaged.2 The legal definition of a ‘Disadvantaged Student’ is one who has free school meals and/or is a ‘Looked After Child’.
Is the Attainment Gap Inevitable?
Disadvantaged students, in general, do badly at GCSE. The Mossbourne Group3 have adopted severe discipline as a tactic for rectifying underachievement. This tactic is loved by some parents and hated by others. The first group are aspirational and those hating it often have SEND children who suffer in an unforgiving stmosphere.4 Mossbourne’s schools are focused on the Gold Standard. Havering’s academies mimic Mossbourne in only one respect – draconian rules on uniform.5 Havering’s academies have petty ‘zero tolerance’ policies. They don’t embrace Mossbourne’s agenda, which is gruelling for teachers.
Mossbourne’s successes are matched by Royal Liberty.6 However Mossbourne has 52% disadvantaged students as against Royal Liberty’s 19%. In Havering only Brittons has Mossbourne’s level of deprivation. Brittons has very poor GCSE results (see Appendix below). Seven of Havering’s academies have an 80%+ fail rate for Gold Standard GCSEs for disadvantaged students. Discouragingly every academy is below the Havering average for non-disadvantaged students. Havering’s academies fail disadvantaged students.
The attainment gap isn’t inevitable. Havering’s academies are unable, or unwilling, to change to meet the challenge.
The Human Cost
Using Royal Liberty as a benchmark, comparative outcomes are appalling.7 Sanders Draper had 23 disadvantaged candidates in 2025. Three achieved the Gold Standard. Another five students would have achieved the Gold Standard if they’d attended Royal Liberty.8 Five students were harmed by Sanders Draper in 2025.
Brittons had 70 disadvantaged students for GCSE in 2025. If Royal Liberty’s outcome is used, this gives Brittons 36 Gold Standard passes. They actually achieved 12. Statistically 24 more students could have achieved the Gold Standard. 24 students were harmed by attending Brittons.
The same story is repeated in 15 Havering academies to a lesser degree.
Conclusion
It’s shameful that Havering consistently fails the most vulnerable of their young people. A grim counsel of despair permeates the borough’s academies. Havering’s academies are in denial. The majority of disadvantaged students fail to achieve their potential. This is a tragedy with huge implications for their future lives.
Notes
1 Abbs Cross Academy and Arts College – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK This is the first in the list for Havering. Drill down to get the school you want.
2 ‘Disadvantaged’ means they have free school meals or are ‘Looked After’.
3 Results by pupil characteristics – Mossbourne Victoria Park Academy – Compare school and college performance data in England – GOV.UK This is an inner-city school
4 Mossbourne’s draconian ‘punishment no matter what’ regime linked to pupils’ self-harm and disproportionately targeted Black boys with harsh sanctions, damning report reveals – Hackney Citizen Compare this, Four Outstanding Schools and Disadvantaged Students | Odeboyz’s Blog
5 School Blazers: A Stealth Tax on Education? – Politics in Havering
6 Royal Liberty 51.9% of their disadvantaged students got the Gold Standard; Mossbourne 56.6%
7 Obviously they are even worse if Mossbourne’s statistics are used.
8 This is reductionist but gives a direction of travel.
APPENDIX: 2025 GCSE Grades 5-9 English and Mathematics: Disadvantaged students
| School | Percentage |
| Havering Average – non-disadvantaged students | 54.2% |
| Royal Liberty | 51.9 |
| Hornchurch High | 44.7 |
| Coopers Coburn | 44.4 |
| Gaynes | 40 |
| Hall Mead | 38.2 |
| Sacred Heart of Mary | 36.4 |
| St Edwards | 35.3 |
| Campions | 33.3 |
| Abbs Cross | 31.4 |
| Harris Academy Rainham | 28.3 |
| Emerson Park | 25.6 |
| Frances Bardsley | 19.6 |
| Drapers | 19.2 |
| Marshalls Park | 18.6 |
| Redden Court | 18.6 |
| Bower Park | 17.2 |
| Brittons | 17.1 |
| Sanders Draper | 13 |
Greater London Assembly Question Time, 18th December 2025
John Stuart Mill, the 19th century philosopher and MP, said “….the Conservatives are the stupidest party….”1 Obviously a cheap abusive quip doesn’t have resonance 159 years later. Or does it? Romford’s MP thinks Havering should leave London and join Essex. Havering existed before he was born. He’s suffering from pre-natal nostalgia – a new disease – for which there is no cure
Question Time in Havering can be dire, focused on the ultra-parochial. Barry Mugglestone leaps up and down brushing off question after question but still they keep coming. Expectations are higher for the GLA’s elite politicians. Expectations which turn to dust as their questions are read.2
The GLA Question Time is a major monthly event, “….as part of their role to hold the Mayor and other bodies to account.3 All 25 councillors ask the Mayor a question and he is the sole responder. It should be intimidating as he sits alone inside an arc of 25 councillors.
Luckily the Conservatives put him at his ease. This humdinger came from Bromley’s finest councillor, Thomas Turrell: Is the Mayor on the side of Londoners? Turrell was hoping Sadiq Khan would collapse. Maybe he’d say, “No – as a matter of fact I can’t stand Londoners”. Perhaps he’d add, he liked getting on telly and picking up a big salary. John Stuart Mill – Triumphant!
Alessandro Georgiou, another Conservative, piled in with, Are you a good negotiator on behalf of Londoners?5What answer was he expecting? This is the sort of probing forensic question a Year 3 Primary School child might ask a Prime Minister who was looking for a caring photo to help his image.
Keith Prince (Reform) asked a question which drew a lengthy answer from the Mayor. Keith asked, What are you doing to improve safety across the TfL network?6 It turned out, to everyone’s amazement, that the Mayor is dynamic in this respect.
Notes
1 JOHN STUART MILL AND THE CONSERVATIVES.. [To ms EDITOR OF » 28 Oct 1882 » The Spectator Archive
3 Questions to the Mayor | London City Hall
4 Question No: 2025/4535
5 Question No: 2025/4326
6 TfL Safety Question No: 2025/4300 You can view the answer and subsequent question here London Assembly (Mayor’s Question Time) from 18/12/2025 It’s about 3 minutes long
Havering’s GLA Member: Keith Prince (Reform)
Havering has two important regional issues. The first is the nine-month closure of the Gallows Corner flyover. This is causing local and east London disruption. The second is significant damage to London’s housing strategy. This is the result of the non-funding of Beam Park station by the Treasury.
Keith isn’t interested in Beam Park but is fascinated by Gallows Corner. He has asked Mayor Khan two questions in three months about Gallows Corner (see A & C in the Addendum). Why is this Keith’s priority?
The Gallows Corner fiasco1 will finish despite repairs making glacial progress. Then the chaos will stop. Keith focuses on Gallows Corner because it’s obvious.
Beam Park is a more challenging. There aren’t easy answers and it’s of critical regional importance. Beam Park’s housing development must have a station built. This looks easy because it doesn’t need new track or a realignment of the east London network. Unfortunately, governments are hypnotised by Treasury orthodoxy. Their grim reductionist thinking means they won’t fund the station. And that means thousands of houses won’t be built. The government’s housing policy is collateral damage to a wrong-headed economic analysis.
Housing is a government priority and Beam Park station will unleash a bonanza.
“….there’s been a mix of recriminations and negotiations about how and why the station, which could serve as many as 20,000 homes, wasn’t authorised to be built.”2
Mayor Khan has approved £32.747m to make Beam Park happen.3 And the Treasury is stalling. Mayor Khan is fighting hard for Beam Park but what is Keith doing?4 He asked a question about bus drivers getting hot in their cabins. (see Addendum B).
Question C at the November meeting (see Addendum at 3 hours 20) was developed by Keith who asked for a period of temporary reopening for Christmas. This positive proposal will help traders if implemented. Unfortunately, the principal barrier is Essex and Suffolk Water, which is out of the Mayor’s control.
Keith was directly elected and should be laser focused on critical local issues.
Notes
1 Andrew Rosindell, Boris Johnson and Gallows Corner, 2014-20 – Politics in Havering
2 Delayed Beam Park railway station moves forward with new planning application
3 DD2452 Beam Park Station | London City Hall
4 Margaret Mullane MP for Dagenham and Rainham has been more proactive Beam Park station update – Margaret Mullane
Addendum: Keith Princes questions to the Mayor: Sept-Nov 2025
- Gallow’s Corner Question No: 2025/3095 Keith Prince Can you provide an update on TfL’s current timeline for the development project at Gallow’s Corner?1
- Freedom of Speech Question No: 2025/3385 Keith Prince What steps are you taking to ensure Londoners have the right to freedom of speech?2
- Gallows Corner (2) Question No: 2025/3693 Keith Prince What consideration have you given to a compensation scheme for businesses at Gallows Corner who have been disrupted by the closure of the flyover and roundabout?3
B London Assembly (Mayor’s Question Time) | London City Hall
C Keith’s question was given a full reply by the Mayor London Assembly (Mayor’s Question Time) | London City Hall
Havering Council Meeting, 19th November 2025 (part two)
Motions1 probe the Administration. Labour and the Conservatives failed to prove that they are a better alternative.
Labour’s motion was on tree management and falling trees. The Conservatives considered the reduction of hours at Romford Police Station, which Havering isn’t responsible for.
Ray Morgon is lucky having a weak disorganised opposition.
Tree management
Labour: Keith Darvill (1 hour 12)2 blamed ‘climate change’ for falling trees. Jane Keane (1:37) promoted volunteer tree wardens
HRA: Barry Mugglestone (1:17) was thin skinned. Gerry O’Sullivan (1:33) defended him. Reg Whitney (1:37) said falling trees was a national problem.
Conservatives: David Taylor (1:20) was worried about trees, Judith Holt (1:28) and Tim Ryan (1:35) wallowed in local knowledge.
East Havering RAs: Brian Eagling (1:21) and Martin Goode (1:25) talked about themselves.
Reform: Keith Prince (1:31) nit-picked. He enjoys this even when no-one else does.
Everyone agreed that randomly falling trees are a ‘Bad Thing’.
Romford Police Station
Conservatives: David (1:49) said a 24 hour front desk was vital to public safety. Dilip Patel (2:10) and Judith (2:11) saw a Labour plot in the reduction.
Labour: Keith D. (1:54) thought a review was a good idea. Jane (2:09) said it wasn’t.
Residents’ Association IG: John Tyler’s (1:57) ‘Good Old Days’ thoughts were from his days as a police officer.
Reform: Keith P. (2:00) dislikes Mayor Khan. He’s vitriolic. Keith is petulant and it spoils the flow – such as it is.
HRA: Stephanie Nunn (2:07) felt lied to about the reduction. Barry (2:08) said voting Labour worked and cited Margaret Mullane’s lobbying successes in Dagenham. Reg (2:09) said Havering was lucky to have a police station at all.
Hostility to Mayor Khan ignores a changing world and budget deficits.
Perhaps better motions would encourage councillors3 who were absent to come next time?
Notes
1 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Council, 19/11/2025 19:30 These are the emotions for debate
2 Annotator Player Times relate to this site
3 Councillors Anderson, Benham, Best, Chapman, Glass, McArdle, McKeever, Ruck, Tumilty, Vickery, Williams, White D, and White M. Councillors Anderson and Tumilty have long-term illnesses No explanations are needed otherwise. This is a quarter of all councillors. For attendance over the last six months see Councillors attendance summary, 29 May 2025 – 21 November 2025 | London Borough of Havering
Havering’s Politics and Political Leaders
Havering’s 55 councillors are divided into six groups. Their leaders are white, elderly men,1 socially conservative and apolitical. Local politicians aren’t politicians, they are managers. George Osborne killed Local Government. This makes it difficult to know who to vote for or, even whether to vote at all. All that politicians can say is that they are, ‘On your side’, whatever that means.
So, what do voters do?
- Vote as you’ve always voted;
- Vote for someone who looks well meaning;
- Vote for a novelty;
- Vote against the government or;
- Don’t vote.
Ageing politicians, and their cliques, are the inevitable result of anti-politics.
Political Leaders
Ray Morgon (25 councillors) Ray is leader of HRA and the council. He’s been a councillor for 23 years. He leads a minority administration. HRA isn’t a political party. It is an umbrella organisation. Its signature policy is 30 minutes of free parking time in Hornchurch and Upminster, which costs about £1m pa.
Michael White (16) Michael is leader of the Conservatives. He’s been a councillor for 30+ years. The Conservatives have diminished after numerous defections. If they are unlucky they could suffer a 2014 event and get wiped out.2 Their signature policy is being ‘good managers’.
Keith Darvill (8) Keith is leader of the Labour party. He’s been a councillor for 23 years. They were part of the HRA coalition until Ray went solo. They rely on option one with people voting traditionally. Surprisingly they don’t have a signature policy.
Martin Goode (3) Martin is leader of the East Havering RAs. He’s been a councillor for seven years. His party is a pressure group in the traditional RA way. Utterly negative, nit-picking and without any policies apart from at-the-margins critiques.
John Tyler (2) John is leader of the Residents’ Association Independent Group. He’s been a councillor for seven years. He’s a ‘True Believer’ in the RA message. ‘No Politics, Focus on the Ward’ and leads a pressure group. He’s less effective than Martin.
Keith Prince (1) Keith is leader of Reform. He’s been a councillor for 35 years.3 Reform is the ‘novelty’ party for 2026. Using 2014 as a guide, and Farage’s charisma, he should do better than UKIP. His signature policy is a secret.
The 2026 Election: Politicians like winning but they might prefer to lose in 2026. Why? Havering is in a bad place and the winner will have to make very tough decisions, which they will probably hate.4
Notes
1 ‘Elderly’ = 65+
2 Havering Local Election Results 22 May 2014
3 Unusually he’s a GLA member and has been a councillor in Redbridge. He’s the most experienced councillor in the chamber alongside Michael White.
4 Winner’s curse – Wikipedia This is when a person convinces themselves of the value of something and win BUT they have mistaken the true value and end up worse than they were before.
Havering Council Meeting, 19th November 2025 (part one)
Havering is bankrupt and thirteen1 councillors were absent from this council meeting. Collectively they ‘earn’ £140,000 pa. Perhaps ‘No show, no pay’ would improve attendance?
Eulogy for former Councillor Mike Davis
Mike was a councillor for 12 years and a champion of the underdog. Pat Brown did the honours with a brilliant six-minute speech. Mike was a multi-talented working-class intellectual. His crowning glory was as an inspiring leader in the Tenants’ Management Organisation. He was a national figure with close connexions to LSE and the national TMO organisation. Pat was deeply emotional but sufficiently composed to read one of Mike’s poems. Jane Keane saw Mike’s work at first hand as a tenant in his TMO and fully endorsed Pat’s heartfelt eulogy.
He was my friend for 40 years and I mourn him.
Question Time2
Q5) Keith Prince Following media reports of large-scale housing fraud in Barking and Dagenham Council,3 how many Council officers do we have checking for housing fraud in Havering?
Natasha Summers has three officers working for her combating fraud. They are so successful, there isn’t any fraud.
I tried to imagine Mike answering this question.
Three officers check 400 tenancies monthly. But three is nebulous. Each have between 31 to 46 days annual and public holiday leave.4 Then sick leave days5 must be added. Statistics suggest an annual 30 days of absence. So, 15% of the working year evaporates for the three anti-fraud officers.
Investigations are slow. ‘Seven’ as a daily target is an aspiration. Numerous call-backs must be included for chasing up people unavailable during the day. This adds to the workload.
Mike would have given a full answer so councillors could understand the magnitude of the task. He would then have asked for additional staff to save money. He would also have been a great deal less trusting then Natasha appears to be.
Notes
1 Councillors Anderson, Benham, Best, Chapman, Glass, McArdle, McKeever, Ruck, Tumilty, Vickery, Williams, White D, and White M: Councillors Anderson and Tumilty have long-term illnesses No explanations are needed otherwise. This is a quarter of all councillors. For attendance over the last six months see Councillors attendance summary, 29 May 2025 – 21 November 2025 | London Borough of Havering
2 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for Council, 19/11/2025 19:30
4 how many working days in a year uk – Search
5 Sickness absence in the UK labour market – Office for National Statistics See especially fig.7 Local government employees have the highest amount of sick leave
Havering’s Silent Political Revolution, 2022-25
The Havering Residents’ Association (HRA) umbrella group was formed for the 2022 election. They had dramatic success and the Conservatives were ousted. An HRA-Labour coalition took their place.1
The dodging and diving began immediately.
Within weeks, Rainham’s three Conservative councillors joined HRA. This set the scene for three years of shameless anti-democratic opportunism. Seven more councillors have ratted on the electorate, without troubling the electorate. Amazingly, an especially flaky councillor has done it twice.
Sarah Edwards, Jacqueline McArdle and Susan Ospreay
Rainham ward: From Conservative to HRA. And Jacqueline McArdle: From HRA to Conservative when she changed her mind again.
Philip Ruck and John Tyler
Cranham ward: From HRA to Cranham Independent ~ John was an associate HRA member but Philip definitely did defect.
Paul McGeary
Gooshays ward: From Labour to HRA. This was spectacular. 1) He smashed the coalition and 2) he, importantly for him, kept his £25,000 pa cabinet position. He’s unlikely to keep his seat in 2026.
John Crowder
Havering-Atte-Bower ward: From Conservative to HRA
Phillippa Crowder and Robby Misir
Marshalls and Rise Park ward: From Conservative to HRA
Keith Prince
Squirrels Heath ward: From Conservative to Reform. This is notable as Keith is one of the most senior politicians in Havering.
And a special mention for,
Damian White
Damian hasn’t defected. He’s sulked since losing the Conservative leadership toKeith Prince. Damian has had very poor attendance for three years.2
Conclusion
Eleven potential by-elections haven’t happened. By-elections are not obligatory. It is, however, undemocratic to change parties and deny voters the chance to approve or not. Most defections are ‘froth’ without political significance.
Keith’s defection matters because he believes HRA’s domination is ending. He also thinks the Conservatives will become a rump, like the Labour party. Keith’s defection is a significant ‘straw in the wind’.
Havering’s bizarre politics will continue in 2026.
Notes
1 5 May 2022 Local Election Results in Havering
2 Your Councillors | London Borough of Havering This is correct as of 9th November 2025. For attendance for the last six months see Councillors attendance summary, 18 May 2025 – 10 November 2025 | London Borough of Havering
Havering’s Air Quality and the Launders Lane Scandal (part two)
Between 2014 and 2022 Launders Lane was ignored.1 A known disaster zone2 that was dismissed by everyone. The toxic infill caused dozens of fires across the site. Also in 2022, grass fires devastated Wennington Village with 18 houses destroyed. Political panic stations!
Politicians either follow, or don’t, the CEO’s advice but they carry the can. Councillors shouldn’t defer to advice, they should critique it. That’s the theory.
Frankie Walker (1:06)3 asked about timescales for the Launders Lane action plan: the ultimate question. The CEO’s response was pure, Yes Minister.4
After some exchanges with Frankie, the CEO said timescales were out of the question! External factors like: Planning permission; the Environment Agency; Contracts and a Judicial Review stood in the way. The delay could be years.Negotiations with the landowner were ‘slow’. The CEO (1:10) feeds HRA’s culture of helplessness. Ray Morgon (1:16) said legislation was unhelpful but,
We’re absolutely committed to action but unfortunately we are prevented by factors beyond our control.
Frankie was unimpressed and councillors began their probing, forensic scrutiny.
Matt Stanton (1:16 and 2:11) was impressive. He asked whether officers had critiqued their performance from 2014. He worried how an escalating situation was unnoticed. His point became apposite when the director of planning (2:03) confirmed the emerging status of ‘Grey Belt’ land. Green Belt land could deteriorate into Grey Belt and become developable.
Judith Holt (1:20) drilled into asbestos related health risks. The asbestos on the land isn’t seen as a health risk. The Environmental Agency officer (1:24) tried, and failed, to calm her worries.
Jason Frost (1: 34) was very measured. He wondered if legislation could be changed. This remote possibility brought the CEO into soothing mode.
Christine Smith (1:38) built on Judith’s pointy by speculating on Zane’s Law.5
Ray Best (2:01) wondered whether brown belt land could be deliberately created as a strategy by landowners. The director was alive to this foreseeable problem.
Jacqueline Williams (2:08) worried about the legal status of the company. She was reassured by the CEO.
Throughout the meeting David Taylor was a model of chairmanship. He maintained the pace of the lengthy discussion drawing out points, which hadn’t had a good airing. He was inclusive. The meeting was a splendid advert for scrutiny by well informed councillors. There were probing forensic questions and answers were not always accepted as gospel.
Notes
1 Conservative-Resident Association (2014-18) and Conservatives (2018-22). Ray Morgon’s HRA (2022-present) inherited the scandal.
2 A court case resulted in imprisonment for the principals in 2014
3 (Public Pack)Agenda Document for People Overview & Scrutiny Sub Committee, 21/10/2025 19:00 The report is very detailed and lengthy. For the webcast see Annotator Player All times relate to this (1 hour 6 minutes becomes 1:06)
4 40 years ago there was a popular BBC series which satirised the relationship between ministers and advisors. Advisors were seen as manipulating and treating ministers with barely concealed contempt. It’s still available on iPlayer.
Politics in Havering 